New Poll projects Tinubu as Nigeria's next president

By Editor 

Ahead of the February 25 Presidential election, a nationwide opinion poll conducted by a group, the "Nigerian Human Rights Community" has revealed that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress APC, Asíwájú Bola Tinubu holds a magnificent lead and is on course to winning the election.

The poll which had 19, 365 was conducted in January this year.

According to the exercise also confirms a two-horse race for the second position between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party LP while Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso came a distant fourth "as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total".

"It is worth noting that Tinubu's lead is sizable but not unassailable in Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Plateau and River States because the largest concentration of Undecided voters reside in these states and there is a rising disaffection with the ruling party in the states.Therefore, these states are battlegrounds yet to be conquered", said the pollsters.

The results showed that out of the 19, 365 respondents interviewed, 7, 940 (41%) are voting for the candidate of the APC while 5,035 (26%), 4,067 (21%), and 1,743 (9%) are voting for the candidates of PDP, LP, and NNPP respectively.

"1,162 (6%) of the respondents are rooting for the other candidates. 

"The detailed analysis in this work and the heterogenous nature of respondents, there is an indication that the forthcoming Presidential Elections is between 3 major candidates of the APC, PDP, and LP parties with Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC as the most dominant and widely accepted candidate followed by Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP) It is worthy of note however that the gray states (Rivers, Kebbi, Bauchi, Plateau, and Katsina) which house largely undecided voters and indifferent incumbent governors who are too close to call could sway the outcome in favor of the presidential candidate who is able to harness their voting strength", the document showed. 

Methodology

According to the pollsters, the study had a sample of 19,365 respondents from across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, which was aimed at investigating the feelings of voters across party lines towards the 2023 general election.

"The data collection and analysis focused on registered party members with PVC, which comprises men, women,youths & People living with disabilities.

"Questionnaires were administered by our trained field interviewers across the country in 3 major languages namely; Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba with our experienced field supervisors overseeing and ensuring the integrity of the data collection process. The responses were coded and analyzed to draw meaning using statistical software.

"To get the truest reflection of the people's opinions, Digital Reasoning was professional and objective in conducting this exercise. Respondents were selected from each of the 36 states including the FCT. A total of 19, 365 questionnaires were administered in all the LGAs of the federation".